Elections in Pakistan: What will happen following Imran Khan's shocking victory?

Elections in Pakistan: What will happen following Imran Khan's shocking victory?

Four days after intensely fought federal elections, Pakistanis still don't know which party will lead their next government or who will be prime minister.

Even after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) faced various restrictions, the party's backed independent candidates shocked onlookers by securing the most National Assembly seats—93—of any party. This, however, falls far short of the 169 seats needed for a simple majority in order to establish a government.

With 75 seats, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), another party led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, came in second. Five years after humiliatingly fleeing Pakistan, he was anticipated to triumph, supported ostensibly by the formidable military of the nation.

With 54 seats, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), headed by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, came in third.

Political parties are required by the Constitution to form a government by February 29th, which is three weeks following election day. The National legislature has 336 seats in total, 266 of which are determined by direct vote and 70 of which are designated for women and non-Muslims, respectively, and are distributed based on the strength of each party in the legislature.

There is no party with a simple majority under this split mandate. However, in order to survive, they must unite or find a common ground," political researcher Rafiullah Kakar told BBC Urdu from Islamabad.

Even though the PML-N and PTI have both claimed victory, a coalition government seems likely. Vote-rigging claims from independent candidates who lost have swamped the courts as the tug-of-war continues. Supporters of the PTI have also staged demonstrations nationwide in front of Election Commission buildings.

What follows then? Among the situations that might occur are:

Supporters of Imran Khan could be silenced by the Pakistan deal

Polls indicate that despite difficulties, Imran Khan has strong support.

Bhutto's PPP and Sharif's PML-N have joined forces.

One option, according to Professor Samina Yasmin of the University of Western Australia, might see the PML-N team up with the PPP and a few other minor parties to create a coalition. This was reported by BBC's Newsday. The two parties controlled until last August after forming an agreement in 2022 to remove Mr. Khan from office.

"The leading issue will be who will be the next prime minister as well as what the division will be in with regard to the position of the president, and additionally within the different provinces," he said.

The socially liberal Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has gained 17 seats, is being supported by the PML-N. Additionally, she is attempting to win over independent candidates.

The PPP seems to be taking its time in weighing its options, even though Mr. Zardari met with a group from the PML-N on Sunday in Lahore, which was headed by Mr. Sharif's brother Shehbaz. The Central Executive Committee of the party will convene on Monday in Islamabad.

PPP and Khan's PTI join forces

When questioned by BBC Urdu about the party's willingness to collaborate with PTI, senior PPP leader Sherry Rehman said that the party's doors are open to all political groups.

But according to Zulfi Bukhari, Mr. Khan's media advisor, according to the BBC, in the event that the PTI is unable to get a majority, it is more likely to remain on the opposition benches than to join a coalition.

This is in line with Mr. Khan's earlier opinions. He is now serving a 14-year jail term for a number of offenses. In 2018, he had predicted that the coalition government would be ineffective and that the nation would need a strong administration to get through its current challenges. Still, he forged a coalition with lesser parties, such as the MQM.

The PML-N and other parties have forged an alliance

For a party whose head has been imprisoned, deprived of the party emblem, and has many of its followers in detention, this would be a stunning comeback. But nothing is off the table in these extraordinary times.

Azam Nazir Tarar, a senior PML-N politician, seems to be acknowledging that PTI cannot be disregarded in his demand for a "participatory coalition government" in which "everyone should join hands".

Speaking to the BBC, Uday Chandra of Georgetown University said, "Even people who had not previously voted against Imran may feel a sense of injustice about the way the military has dealt with the politician and his party over the past two years." How you have conducted yourself." "It seems that there has been a violation of the shared sense of democratic fairness throughout the region."

He stated: "By electing independent candidates, voters are delivering a clear message to the military service: Let civilian democracy prevail."

Independent MLAs backed by the PTI unite as a tiny party

It has been suggested that the PTI-backed candidates may create a coalition government by joining forces with a minor party. In order to take use of the 60 National Assembly seats set aside for women, their seats will be combined.

EventuallyFor every 3.5 seats won by the political party, one women's reserved seat is awarded. Since independent candidates are not affiliated with any party, they are not eligible. They must further announce their decision to join a party or serve as an independent Member of Parliament within 72 hours of the election results being confirmed.

Although even creating a partnership with lesser parties will prevent the PTI from gaining a majority, Asma Faiz of Lahore University of Management Sciences asserts that it is "highly unlikely" that the party would be able to create a coalition government.

"Apart from the legal need to establish a presence in the party, there is no numerical advantage for PTI in interacting with these smaller parties," he said.