Trump Leads in Five Crucial States as People Attack Biden, According to a Times/Siena Poll

 Trump Leads in Five Crucial States as People Attack Biden, According to a Times/Siena Poll

As Mr. Biden's multicultural base begins to erode, voters in battleground states said that they trusted Donald J. Trump above President Biden on immigration, foreign policy, particularly the economy.

One year before the 2024 election, polls by The New York Times and Siena College reveal that President Biden is lagging behind Donald J. Trump in five of the six most significant battleground states. These issues stem from deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and a number of other issues, as well as severe doubts about his age.

The data indicate that among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, as well as Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden is losing to Mr. Trump, his most likely Republican opponent, by percentages ranging from three to ten percentage points. According to the survey, Mr. Biden leads only in Wisconsin, where he leads by two percentage points.

In 2020, Mr. Biden won all six of the battlegrounds. On average, the president lags by 48 to 44 percent.

In the Times/Siena survey, discontent is pervasive; most respondents claim that Mr. Biden's actions have negatively impacted them personally. The poll also shows how much the coalition of different races and generations that supported Mr. Biden in his election is eroding. Now, there is much greater competition among the demographic groups that supported Mr. Biden by wide numbers in 2020 because two-thirds of voters believe the nation is headed in the wrong way.

Mr. Biden's lead among Hispanic voters is in the single digits, work to his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump's margin in rural areas, and he is only slightly preferred among voters under thirty. Men backed Mr. Trump by twice as much as women did, overturning the gender advantage that had driven so many Democratic victories in previous years, even if women still supported Mr. Biden.

Long a pillar of support for Democrats and Mr. Biden, black voters are suddenly giving Mr. Trump 22 percent of the vote in these states, a percentage never before seen in presidential politics for a member of the in modern times.

When everything is taken into account, Mr. Trump has a lead of 10 points in Nevada, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Arizona, 5 in Michigan, and 4 in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden had a two-point advantage.

Mr. Biden trailed more in swing states with more diversity, and he only led in the whitest of the six states, in an astonishing indication of a slow racial realignment between the two parties.

The survey indicates that both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump enjoy extreme unpopularity. However, a majority of people who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction are venting their resentment at the president.

Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old Bloomsburg, Pennsylvania electrical substation expert who backed Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now endorsing Mr. Trump, although with some doubts, said, "The world is falling apart under Biden." "I would much rather see someone who I believe can lead the nation as a good role model. However, I believe that Trump is at least intelligent.

There is yet a year left for Mr. Biden to make things right. Even many voters disagree, economic indicators are rising. Mr. Trump continues to be divisive. Furthermore, Mr. Biden's well-funded campaign will work to strengthen his areas of demographic weakness. Despite Mr. Biden's low popularity ratings at the time, the president's advisors have said time and time again that Democrats were able to limit the party's losses in 2022.

Nevertheless, the poll demonstrates how, despite Mr. Trump's four criminal indictments and 2024 trial, Mr. Biden starts the next year behind. Should the poll's findings hold true in November of next year, Mr. Trump is expected to gain over 300 Electoral College votes, much above the 270 required to win the presidency.

The fact that supporters of all income levels said that Mr. Trump's policies had benefited them personally while Mr. Biden's policies had damaged them personally is another worrying indicator for Democrats. Voters awarded Mr. Trump a 17-point edge for helping them and Mr. Biden an 18-point deficit for hurting them, resulting in a mirror opposite outcome.

Being the oldest president in American history strikes Mr. Biden, who turns 81 later this month, as an obvious disadvantage. 71 percent of respondents thought he was "too old" to be a successful president; this view was held by people from every demographic and region in the survey, including an astounding 54 percent of Mr. Biden's own supporters.

On the other hand, just 19% of Mr. Trump's 77-year-old fans and 39% of the public as a whole thought he was too elderly.

The poll findings reveal a wide range of Biden shortcomings, and worries about the president's aging and mental capacity are only the beginning. Sixty-two percent of respondents said that Mr. Biden lacked the "mental sharpness" necessary to be a successful leader.

Regarding the economy, voters preferred Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent, the greatest difference on any topic. Regarding economic issues, the voters as a whole—men and women, college graduates and non-grads, all age groups and income brackets—preferred Mr. Trump.

This is particularly troubling for Mr. Biden since almost twice as many people said that economic concerns—rather than social issues like abortion or guns—would influence their vote in 2024. And a resounding 60% to 32% of those voters who were economically inclined supported Mr. Trump.

The results are in line with Mr. Biden's campaign's millions-of-dollar advertisements touting his track record and his ongoing national tour to boast about the health of the economy. "People, Bidenomics is just the American dream expressed another way!" On a visit to Minnesota on Wednesday, Mr. Biden said.

Voters are obviously at odds. Just 2% of respondents said the economy was doing very well.

Younger voters, who supported Mr. Biden heavily in 2020, said that they trusted Mr. Trump more on the economy by an astounding 28 percentage points. This is in spite of years of inflation and rising interest rates that have made mortgages much more expensive. Three states, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, had no poll respondents in the under-30 age category, meaning that less than 1% of respondents considered the present situation of the economy to be great.

"I really thought that Biden would win," said 25-year-old Albany, Georgia liquor packager Jahmerry Henry. There isn't anything worse than Trump. However, as time passes, things like inflation, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and most lately, Israel, occur, and I suppose our borders are not safe at all.

Mr. Henry now intends to support Mr. Trump.

Patricia Flores, 39, of Reno, Nevada, said, "I don't see anything that he accomplished to benefit us." She voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but plans to unfollow him in 2024.

Rebuilding the so-called "blue barrier" in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as well as broadening the map to include the increasingly diverse Sun Belt states of Arizona and Georgia, had been Mr. Biden's route to success in 2020.

Mr. Biden is far more popular in the industrialized northern states than in the more diversified Sun Belt, according to the survey.

Furthermore, he is vulnerable to a wide range of problems.

On immigration, 12 points went to Mr. Trump, 12 points went to Mr. Biden on national security, and 11 points went to Mr. Trump on the Israeli-Palestinian problem. Furthermore, although the majority of voters (58%) favored further military and economic assistance to Ukraine, which is consistent with Mr. Biden's foreign policy, this did not seem to help the president's standing in general.

Travis Waterman, 33, a house repair worker in Phoenix, said, "I am not thinking he's the right guy to go toe to toe with all of these other world leaders that disregard him or fear him." Though he supported Mr. Biden in 2020, he now views Mr. Biden as "weak" and favors Mr. Trump.

There was a huge gender disparity in national security. Men favored Mr. Trump 62% to 33%, while women favored Mr. Biden 47% to 46%.

When it came to abortion, respondents preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by a margin of nine percentage points. Regarding the more ambiguous handling of "democracy," Mr. Biden was able to hold onto the confidence of voters by a far narrower margin of three points over Mr. Trump.

Mr. Biden has previously weathered unsatisfactory poll results. In reality, the president's job approval rating was almost exactly the same in October 2022, just before the midterm elections. Despite this, his party won one Senate seat and lost fewer House seats than anticipated, partly due to its portrayal of Republican candidates as radicals.

The degree to which Mr. Trump's bombast and charisma alienate people now seems to have decreased, despite the fact that these qualities have long served as the binding agent between a divided Democratic coalition. Just 46% of people said Mr. Biden had the right temperament to be president, which is not much more than 43% who thought the same of Mr. Trump. Nevertheless, Mr. Trump will be more visible in 2024 due to his legal troubles, an increasing presence that may serve to remind people of their initial distaste for him.

From October 22 to November 3, 2023, live operators conducted telephone surveys of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, washington Wisconsin for the New York Times/Siena College. The margin of sampling error, when all states are pooled, is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. For every state, the sample error margin ranges from 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points. Here are the methodology and cross-tabs.