worldwide key breaches 1.5C warming threshold for most days ever

 worldwide key breaches 1.5C warming threshold for most days ever

According to a BBC investigation, the planet is approaching a crucial warming barrier at a pace that has experts worried.

The average global temperature was at least 1.5C higher than pre-industrial levels on nearly one-third of the days in 2023.

It is generally agreed upon that staying below that threshold will be essential to preventing the worst effects of climate change.

However, 2023 is "on track" to surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.

"It is a sign that we're reaching levels we haven't been before," claims Dr. Melissa Lazenby of the University of Sussex.

This most recent discovery comes after September temperatures that broke records and an exceptionally severe summer for most of the planet.

Climate warming was a significant factor in Libya's flooding of the Antarctic ice sheet, according to researchers, who raised warnings about the'mind-blowing' low levels.

UN urges drastic reforms to curb global warming

Political leaders committed to making every effort to limit the long-term increase in global temperatures this century "well below" 2C when they met in Paris in December 2015.

The pre-industrial period, between 1850 and 1900, was the time before the extensive use of fossil fuels, and the agreed limitations relate to the difference between current world average temperatures and what they were before that time.

These Paris standards must be exceeded over the course of a 20- or 30-year average; it does not imply that they must be exceeded for a single day or a single week.

The current range for this average long-term warming is between 1.1 and 1.2C.

But the longer-term proximity of the Earth to surpassing this level increases the more often 1.5C is exceeded on particular days.

When legislators were signing the agreement on the 1.5C threshold in December 2015, this phenomenon occurred for the first time in the contemporary history.

Since then, the restriction has been routinely exceeded, but usually only briefly.

Around 75 days in 2016 were above that threshold due to a severe El Nio event, a natural climate change that tends to raise global temperatures.

However, according to a BBC examination of data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, up to October 2, around 86 days in 2023 had been warmer than normal compared to pre-industrial times. That surpasses the 2016 record a long time before the year is through.

Because the statistics represent a worldwide average and there may be tiny data inconsistencies, the precise number of days that have above the 1.5C threshold is not entirely definite. The difference between 2023 and 2016's numbers, however, provides assurance that the record has already been broken.

"The fact that global temperatures are reaching this 1.5C anomaly daily, and for an increasing number of days, is concerning," Dr. Lazenby said.

The emergence of El Nio conditions is a significant element contributing to the increase of these temperature anomalies. This has now been verified, however it is still weaker than its high in 2016.

Due to these circumstances, heat from the eastern Pacific Ocean is being transferred into the atmosphere. When coupled with the long-term warming from burning fossil fuels, this may illustrate why 2023 is the first year in which the 1.5C anomaly has been observed between June and October.

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Prof. Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading stated, "This is the first time that we've experienced this in the summertime in the northern hemisphere, which is unusual. It's quite astonishing to see what's been going on."

"I know our Australian colleagues have particular fears about what's going to be an issue for them with their summer looming [for instance extreme wildfires], especially with El Niño."

Days with temperature differences more than 1.5C persisted until September, with some exceeding 1.8C.

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the month as a whole was 1.75C over pre-industrial levels, while the year as a whole is around 1.4C above the average between 1850 and 1900.

Even while 2023 is "on track" to set a new record for warmth, the world's average temperature for the whole year is not anticipated to rise beyond the 1.5C warming barrier.

underlying causes

This year, the seas have also had abnormally high temperatures, which has caused them to release more heat into the atmosphere.

"The North Atlantic Ocean is among the warmest we've ever recorded, and if they look at the North Pacific Ocean, there's a tongue of unexpectedly warm water stretching all the way from Japan to California," said Dr. Jennifer Francis from the US's Woodwell Climate Assessment Centre.

While greenhouse gas emissions are raising average temperatures, it is not entirely clear why marine temperatures have increased at such a rapid rate.

One idea, which is still speculative, holds that a decrease in air pollution from shipping across the North Atlantic has enhanced warmth and decreased the amount of microscopic particles.

These "aerosols" have been deflecting some of the sun's radiation and keeping the Earth's surface colder than it would have been otherwise, somewhat balancing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions up to this point.

The environment around Antarctica is another, though less well-known, aspect.

Sea ice levels surrounding the coldest continent have been a source of constant worry since evidence indicates they are far lower than they have ever been.

However, other analysts contend that two recent temperature increases in Antarctica, brought largely by natural variability, have raised the world average. However, pinpointing the specific impact of long-term warming brought on by humans is challenging.

Dr. Karsten Haustein from the institution of Leipzig said that "early July, Antarctica got really pleasant, they saw record temperatures, although is still 20 or 30 degrees Celsius below zero."

"And what we see with 1.5C and 1.8C irregularities we are seeing now, it is entirely down to Antarctica again."

There is a belief that the big temperature disparities from the pre-industrial period may continue, particularly when El Nio approaches its height at the end of this year or early in the next. This is true even though the northern hemisphere will naturally cool in the fall and winter.

These persistently high temperature anomalies, according to researchers, need to serve as a warning to political leaders, who will assemble in Dubai in November for the COP28 climate meeting.

They assert that immediate action is required to reduce emissions, not simply long-term.

The UN encouraged nations to speed up climate action in March, emphasizing that there were now viable ways to decrease emissions, such as renewable energy and electric cars.

"It's not just about accomplishing an end goal, of net zero by 2050, it's about how we get there," Professor Hawkins said.

"The IPCC [the UN's climate organization] quite clearly states that we need to reduce emissions by half over the next ten years before reaching net zero. The route to net zero is more important than just getting there at some time.

The effects of climate change worsen with every tenth of a degree of warming, as this year's severe weather events have shown, from heatwaves in Europe to torrential rains in Libya.