Uneven monsoon might result in a decrease in the yield of Kharif crops, especially rice

 Uneven monsoon might result in a decrease in the yield of Kharif crops, especially rice

According to preliminary output estimates, rice production this kharif might be more than 3% lower than it was the previous year.

According to the final forecast for 2022–23, rice production—the largest crop planted during the kharif season—could decrease by 3.79% to 106.31 million tonnes in the 2023–24 season from 110.5 million tonnes. Despite more than normal acreage, this drop is attributable to an inconsistent monsoon.

The first early estimate of kharif foodgrain output, which was made public late yesterday night, indicates that all major kharif crops this year may see a decrease in production, with sugarcane, moong, urad, and soybeans leading the way.

A protracted dry spell in August and an irregular monsoon at the beginning of the season are to blame for the decrease.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had already predicted that there may be a minimum two million-ton decline in rice output this kharif season.

The initial output assessment for 2023–24 (Kharif) is mostly based on the average yield of the previous three years, according to an official statement that was issued late yesterday night. It may be updated if yield estimates based on real crop-cutting trials are received.

In reference to the decrease in rice yield, the statement said that the estimated area planted with rice is around 200,000 hectares more than the final estimate from the previous year and approximately 450,000 hectares more than the average rice area.

It was also indicated in the announcement that rice output is anticipated to surpass the average of the previous several years.

A notable reduction in kharif yield might pose challenges to the government's efforts to tackle food inflation and heighten dependence on imports for essential commodities like pulses and edible oils.

The southwest monsoon this year has been very erratic and distorted, mostly because to El Niño's negative effects.

Initially, the precipitation was delayed and did not intensify much, resulting in almost a 9% deficit in June.

Subsequently, the amount of rain that did fall increased dramatically, reaching a surplus of 13% in July.

But August saw another notable lull in the rain, which resulted in a record 36% monsoon deficit for the month—among the biggest in recent memory.

In September, the nation began to see rain just as many were bracing for drought-like conditions.

According to statistics, the June–September monsoon season finished with a 5.6% shortfall, rendering the 2023 monsoon 'below average,' the first in more than four years.

India received around 821 millimeters of rain between June 1 and September 30, compared to a typical total of 869 millimeters.

Thus, the monsoon season concluded with precipitation equal to 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

With a model error of either a plus or 4 percent, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast that rainfall will be almost 96% of the LPA.