Renewable electricity generation is seasonally lower during the winter, but both solar and wind generation showed year-on-year growth of nearly 3 GW
New Delhi: India's electricity demand for January stood at 184 GW, up 18% year-on-year (YoY), as the mean temperature day (HDD) last month was 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal. Was inspired by the comparatively cold weather. day according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
According to the report, however, from January 21, 2023 onwards, the weather changed its course and became warmer than normal, increasing the demand for cooling.
For February 1–12, cooling degree days (CDDs) were about 2°C higher per year, and electricity demand averaged 197 GW, about 13% higher than the same period a year earlier.
S&P Global Commodity Insights believes electricity demand will slow to double-digit growth once weather normalizes, but should still be strong at about 7%.
According to the report, renewable energy production is seasonally lower during winter, but both solar and wind production have seen year-over-year growth of about 3 GW.
However, the big change in January 2023 output has come from coal, which has increased by 20 GW from a year ago to 148 GW.
"Strong coal-fired power generation during the first half of the year limited some replenishment of coal reserves, but at the end of January stocks are still sufficient for 12 days' generation, an increase of almost three days." years," it added.
S&P Global Commodity Insights said coal-fired power generation will continue to be the thermal fuel that will meet fluctuating power demand and could reach new record highs during warmer-than-normal weather, especially in the spring.
Spring is usually a period of high demand for thermal fuel in the power sector, as hydro and renewable energy increases during the summer months.
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects coal-fired power generation to average 142 GW in the second quarter, down 3 GW year over year.
According to the report, gas-fired power generation has been stable and low at around 3 GW, and LNG production is almost absent from the fuel mix, averaging only 2 million m³/day in December. India has fixed a ceiling price of Rs 12/kWh for bulk electricity.
On 14 February, the average MCP price in the forward day market on the Indian Energy Exchange was 6.88/kWh; Far below the cost of an electric roof. However, for the western region, the peak power price was affected for both morning and evening peak power demand hours on 14 February.
West India's marker LNG price may spread a positive spark in the western sector if it is bought at around $11.5/mmbtu when the peak power price is reached, but this is 3/3 higher than the price published on 14 February . $14.5 MMBtu. mmbtu is less.
Therefore, an increase in the use of spot LNG for power generation is unlikely to happen until the West India Marker LNG price declines further.
S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that electricity generation from gas will continue at around 3 GW for most of the year, with gas demand at 14 million m³/day, but there could be some upside in the spring.
The government has instructed operators of gas-fired power plants to keep 2 GW of additional capacity ready for the spring season, but it is uncertain how much will be used. For April, the assumption of gas-fired power generation has been increased to 4 GW.
There could be some further uptick in sentiment for gas-fired power generation ahead of the onset of monsoon in May.
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