• INR vs USD: IIFL Securities expert believes Indian rupee may trade between 80 to 84 in 2023
Stock Market Outlook 2023: In the year 2022 we see Nifty close to 19,000 level to reach 18,887 level which is 3.37% higher than last year. Sensex touched new record high of 63579.96 which is 3.77% higher than last year. We saw a positive trend in Indian indices despite net outflow of FPIs. Thanks to DIIs who were net buyers. The year 2022 was full of issues related to political, geo-political, policies, inflation.
Early in the year 2022 where we are coming out of covid and suddenly a globe is covered with geopolitical tension. First it was with Russia and Ukraine, and then China and Taiwan. We have also seen unrest between Saudi Arabia and USA. Tension increased when the G-20 imposed several sanctions on Russia. We have also seen military activity on the borders of India and China. Therefore, the year 2022 was full of scenes of global war.
The year 2022 was also full of commodity price momentum. We saw that Brent crude oil prices touched a high of $131 per barrel. Edible oil prices also rose sharply and touched an all-time high of MYR 8,757 per tonne. This year is also filled with changes in the policy framework by central banks. All central banks were in line to raise interest rates starting with the FOMC. To fight inflation, all major central banks adopted an aggressive policy stance and raised interest rates. They are also going to the year 2023 with the same example. But they are also expecting that interest rates may peak in the year 2023.
stock market triggers in 2023
Next year 2023 can also be very volatile but helpful with positive news. This positivity provides support to global stock markets. In the global competition we are expecting that the war may end on the Russian side as Russia is expected to be ready for talks with Ukraine. Energy prices may come down as large economies are producing more crude oil and have become self-sufficient in energy prices. Interest rates may peak and China may come out of Covid, giving a boost to the global economy.
Currencies were also trading at multi-year lows. The dollar index touched a 20-year high of 114 and the euro, pound, yuan and rupee touched multi-year lows. The rupee touched an all-time low of 83.28. India's CAD in the April-June quarter stood at $23.9 billion, which was about 2.8 per cent of GDP. India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $563.5 billion. It has fallen from $632.7 billion earlier this year.
In the Indian context, the coming year will again be a good year for the stock market. Inflation in India is at 5.88% and is expected to come down further. Crude oil prices are coming down globally which is positive for India. Year 2023 will be a good year as we also expect rabi and kharif crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, ramseed, soyabean, pulses and palm crops under edible oil mission. India is coming out of cCovid resuming full economic activities.
Against India, fundamentals are looking positive. FPI investments can be expected to increase as India is again an investment park for global investors due to political stability and strong policy framework from RBI.
nifty 2023 target
Next year we are expecting Nifty and Sensex to outperform. Nifty may test 22000 to 23000 levels and Sensex may test 68000 to 70000 levels in the coming year. Positive economic activity, low inflation, political stability and improving global markets will be key factors for recovery.
Technically, Nifty and Sensex are looking positive. The prices are following the formation of a higher top higher bottom in tandem with a bullish candlestick pattern. The price is trading above 10 and 20 (EMA) on a quarterly basis. RSI. MACD is showing positive divergence. They are showing signs of optimism. Strong support for Nifty near 17100 and then 16000. Resistance 19000 level and then 22000 level. Technically if it trades above 19000 level then it can take rally towards 21500 to 22000 level and above 23000 will be the final destination for Nifty.
sensex 2023 target
Similarly Sensex has 56000 level and then 50000 level. Resistance at the 64000 level and then at the 68000 level. Technically if it trades above 64000 levels then it can rally towards 68000 and then 70000 levels.
rupee vs dollar
For Rupee we are expecting it to top out around 83 to 84 levels. It has strong support near 82 and then 80 levels. Resistance at 84 and then 87 levels. We are expecting it to trade between 80 to 84 levels and consolidate against US Dollar.
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