As of Friday, China reported 5,233 Covid-related deaths and 331,952 cases with symptoms.
China has begun taking steps to ease its zero-Covid policy, fueling a mix of relief and concern as the public waits to see the health consequences and impact on the medical system for a full exit. Has been
Researchers have analyzed how many deaths could occur in the country if it were to fully reopen, pointing to the country's relatively low vaccination rate and lack of herd immunity as some of its most vulnerable spots.
As of Friday, China reported 5,233 Covid-related deaths and 331,952 cases with symptoms.
Here are some guesses:
over 2 million
Zhou Jiatong, head of the Center for Disease Control in the southwestern Guangxi region, said in a paper published last month by the Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine that mainland China faces more than 2 million deaths if it follows the same pattern as Hong Kong. to loosens Covid restrictions. this year.
Their forecast suggests that infections could exceed 233 million.
1.55 million
In May, scientists in China and the United States estimated that if China abandons its tough zero-Covid policy without safeguards such as access to vaccinations and treatments, according to research published in Nature Medicine That alone is at risk of over 1.5 million Covid deaths.
They estimated that based on worldwide data collected about the severity of the variant, the peak demand on intensive care would exceed capacity by 15 times, leading to approximately 1.5 million deaths.
However, the researchers, the lead author of whom was from Fudan University in China, said that if attention was paid to vaccination, the death rate could decrease rapidly.
up to 2.1 million
British scientific information and analysis company Airfinity said on Monday that 1.3 million to 2.1 million people could die if China pulls out its zero-Covid policy because of low vaccination and booster rates as well as the lack of hybrid immunity.
The company said it generated its data on Hong Kong's BA.1 wave in February, two years after the city eased restrictions.
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