The everyday annoyances of democracy and an uncomfortable cup of tea with Rahul Gandhi in Modi's new world

The Modi government's altered reality in its third term is by no means the emergence of a novel phenomenon. It's a throwback to the bygone era when even majorities often had to deal with infamous million-mutiny situations.

In his 23 years in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be leading in a politically charged atmosphere for the first time, having served as chief minister of Gujarat for 13 of those years.

The 18th Lok Sabha, which is scheduled to meet later this week, will be the most hotly fought new position. The unified and revitalized Opposition INDIA bloc will equal the BJP's strength in numbers and throat-pulling power despite the NDA's comfortable majority.

Such a challenge has never before faced Modi or the BJP under him, in the Gujarat legislature or in New Delhi. There will be no more of the tried-and-true tactic used by the Modi-led BJP to publicly disparage, suspend, or banish opposition members in large numbers, as it did with 146 MPs in December of last year.

Almost all of the most significant measures were approved by voice vote in the Opposition-mukt houses of Parliament. Among the most notable examples are the three recently enacted criminal legislation. These take effect on July 1st.

From now on, every measure will be thoroughly discussed and put to a vote. There will now be opposition to even areas where consensus was reached based on the political adversaries' common "trade union" interest, such the National Judicial Appointments Commission Act. Committees in parliament will become different. Thus, it is clear how important the selection of the next Speaker will be.

Renowned political strategist Prashant Kishor, or as he likes to describe to himself, political advisor, was mistaken in his slightly premature forecast of a simple and sizable BJP majority. However, the second fundamental shift he predicted—that the BJP would confront opposition activity and public anger even with a large majority—will prove to be as accurate as the first. Regarding his third claim, which is that Brand Modi is losing ground, let's cling to the most cliched opedist fallback: only time will tell.

The Agnipath plan, Manipur, and serial test paper leaks are the three subjects on which the Opposition is already honing its blades. Each affects substantial portions of the demographics of voters who are essential to the BJP. In addition to mentioning Agnipath at his news conference on the document leaks on Thursday, Rahul Gandhi took the first steps.

The administration was reviewing the Agnipath initiative even before to the elections, as Snehesh Alex Philip of ThePrint news bureau noted, but it now has to prepare for two things. One, short of a complete retreat, the opposition will not accept any modifications. Secondly, the Opposition will argue that it pushed the government's hand, even if the government keeps it with significant modifications. No such resistance was conceivable during the 17th Lok Sabha when the policy was executed in the shock-and-awe secrecy typical of the Modi regime.

The education minister has already recanted on test leaks, taking ownership of the issue and directing investigations and reviews.

Despite its inability to bring back normalcy in Manipur, the BJP has so far gotten away with it. The previous strategy of keeping the Congress out of sight and out of mind is no longer viable for the Modi administration, given that the party has won both state seats and even appointed a chief minister who is as discredited as Biren Singh.

Now, the Rajya Sabha will face a new issue as well—one that's not quite as big as the Lok Sabha's, but nevertheless important. The YSRCP of Andhra and the BJD of Odisha are two sizable regional parties that have so far supported the BJP. This includes backing for the majority of controversial measures, such as the one that reduced the elected government of Delhi's authority under the constitution.

In a formal sense, neither belonged to the NDA nor was an ally of the BJP. In fact, the BJP ran a cordial but competitive campaign against each in their own states. Both turned into the submissive opposition to the governing majority. Can the BJP now continue to rely on their unquestioning support? The political landscape in both states has altered as a result of their defeat by the BJP or one of its allies.

Last but not least, should Rahul Gandhi take the role of leader of the Opposition in Parliament, he would be entitled under the Constitution to confer with the prime minister on the appointment of individuals to important posts, such as the chiefs of the Election Commission, the Central Vigilance Commission, and the CBI. Though purely symbolic, the inevitable but sporadic cup of tea with Rahul serves as a significant metaphor for the prime minister's altered reality.

In its third term, the Modi administration has returned to the old normal, when even majorities had to deal with the infamous million mutinies on a regular basis. In that regard, the last ten years have been the least taxing on the Center. The majority that did surface, most notably the JNU and anti-CAA rallies, were quickly put down. The farmers' protest was the only one to result in a win.

Generally speaking, the government had the flexibility to divide up its problems, address some piecemeal and postpone others forever. Consider the blocked peace accord with the Naga people. The task just slipped off the list.

These aren't really difficult new obstacles. However, they highlight the reality that the Modi administration will now have to face the routine, everyday difficulties of running India during its third term. He has never had to deal with issues like the three extremists who have prevailed in Punjab and Kashmir, two of whom are still in prison. Here we have the return of the everyday annoyances of democracy.

And lastly, the next day's political problem. Ever since he won his party's first election in Gujarat in 2002, Modi's all-conquering electoral dominance was undeniable. Over time, he solidified his status as the primary vote-getter for his party in every election, making it the sole one. Important party leaders who had long resisted the RSS-BJP philosophy crossed over, believing that doing so would provide them with a "Modi ki Guarantee" of victory in elections. Does that assumption remain true?

It was clear that Modi couldn't turn out the vote for his party in the majority of the state elections that quickly followed the two national elections that came before, in 2014 and 2019. Then it was said that although he could influence an election for a lamppost as long as support was given to him, this strategy did not always succeed after he was off the ticket. However, because he was only making progress at the national level, it was not seen as a weakness.

Every state election from now on will be closely watched by his supporters for proof of his comeback and his opponents for indications of a deepening slide. Up first are Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand later this year, followed by Delhi in January and Bihar in September of the next year.

It's not like Modi has never encountered difficulties before. He and his main advisers faced several charges and investigations, a boycott by the West, and difficult challenges from courts and activists while serving as Gujarat's chief minister. But they reinforced his politics, not made them weaker. His base was pleased because he was the underdog defending his ideals. No one could mount an electoral challenge to him. The current circumstance is fundamentally different.