Although it was anticipated that the new rule modifications would boost offense and activity, early patterns for this season indicate a reversal in both areas.
It's unlikely that Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball predicted a decline in scoring in 2024 when they implemented the pitch clock, restricted defensive shifts, and took steps to encourage base stealing. In actuality, however, MLB run scoring is down 0.18 runs per game from the previous season. That is a 4% decrease in runs.
This article compares the first 742 team games this year to the first 744 team games from previous year. So, to put it politely, it's apples to apples. It should be mentioned that in the first year of the new regulations, complete scoring was 4.28 R/G in 2022 but increased to a year-end 4.62 last year. However, it seems that the patterns leading to lower scores have returned.
The batting averages and on-base percentages for April 2023 and April 2024 are shown below. More than any other metric, OPS is correlated with run scoring at the team level. A loss of 24 OPS points is noteworthy. Since 1989, the league-wide OPS has never fallen below.700. It seems that MLB's attempts to raise batting average by doing away with the shift are also failing. Not only is a batting average of.240 five points below what it was in 1968 (when it was.237), but it would also be the lowest since 1968.
It's a good idea to keep these figures in mind while reviewing player data. Context, or the surrounding area, has swiftly evolved. When comparing a player's performance to the league average, measures like OPS+ or ERA+ are a good place to start since they account for stadium adjustments. League average is 100, and the higher the better. These numbers are available on every Baseball Reference player or club page.
Examining more closely, we see that the walk and strikeout rates are almost unchanged—in fact, this year's strikeout rate is somewhat lower than it was during the same period last year. The BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play (which does not include home runs, walks, or strikeouts), has decreased by six points, while the home run rate has dropped by an astounding 13%.
It is obvious that the league's attempt to boost base hits on balls in play by doing away with the shift was unsuccessful. It's interesting to notice that in 2023, 6.9% of runs scored were unearned. By 2024, that number had increased to 10.3%. More mistakes may also have contributed to the rise in runs as well as the declines in BABIP and batting average. (The hitter is charged with an out when a fielder commits a mistake.)
Upon further examination of the sort of balls being hit, we see a notable decrease in the percentage of line drives (2.5%), and a significant rise in the rate of infield fly per fly ball, or popup rate. 8.3%) It's obvious that the touch quality is worse. It's noteworthy that the soft contact percentage increased by 7%, from 16% to 17.1%, in addition to the table below.
What therefore is driving the decline in the dispersion of the ball in play and the quality of contact? Although some would believe it's velocity, all pitches' velocities are almost unchanged from the previous year. The pitch distribution, as shown in the table below, has altered, however. Over the last ten years, there has been a significant decline in the use of 2- and 4-seam fastballs and a significant rise in sliders and cutters.
That it's more difficult to get a firm grip on the slider and cutter makes natural sense. "Major League hitters can put wood on a bullet," is a saying that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo often uses to describe how his players can smash fastballs with great velocity. Pitchers, coaches, and clubs have obviously determined that the best course of action is to chase tougher breaking pitches, such as cutters and sliders. In this context, the decline in the use of curveballs is noteworthy as well.
In summary
There is a decline in run scoring in big league baseball. There have been fewer home runs and a lower batting average as a consequence of worse contact quality. The increasing usage of hard breaking pitches, such sliders and cutters, may be one reason for the declines seen in these categories. Consideration should also be given to defense given the rise of unearned runs. Whether or if the baseball has changed is not discussed in this post since I do not have any supporting data.
As an aside, it's very plausible that the increasing use of cutters and sliders is the reason for the apparent rise in pitcher injuries, particularly after 2020–21. Although it is beyond the purview of this research, I may revisit that subject in the future.
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