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Which party is winning or losing in the South African poll?


The ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa staged their farewell rally on Saturday with the theme Siyanqoba, which translates to "We Are Conquering" in Zulu. The party is vying for a record seventh term in government.


However, the party doesn't seem to be winning this election—far from it.

The demonstration was organized in a 90,000-seat football stadium in the historic township of Soweto, however it was a failure due to low-quality campaign posters and T-shirts.

According to opinion surveys, the ANC may lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power thirty years ago at the end of white minority rule, as people punish it for high unemployment, rampant government corruption, and power outages.


Even so, the 60,000–70,000 voter turnout was noteworthy, and Mr. Ramaphosa said the party was going to have a "decisive victory" on Wednesday.


Some ANC supporters carried coffins of opposition parties, such as uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), which means Spear of the Nation and is the newly founded party of former President Jacob Zuma.


According to Manelisi Zulu, "Zuma is a big traitor," to the BBC.


In December, the 82-year-old former president shocked everyone by leading MK's campaign instead of the ANC.


Mr. Zulu said that Mr. Zuma's party was doomed and stated, "Today is its memorial." We'll bury it on May 29."


Alternatively, according to opinion surveys, MK might get 8% to 13% of the national vote and contribute to preventing the ANC from gaining a legislative majority.


In order to overthrow ANC rule in KwaZulu-Natal, Mr. Zuma's home province, the party may also become the biggest there.


Recognizing the danger, Mr. Ramaphosa opened fire on his predecessor without mentioning him.


"Those who could not stand the renewal of the ANC have left us," he said.


In addition, Mr. Ramaphosa said that "treasonous" efforts to "destroy" the tax agency had been "stopped" and that law enforcement agencies were recovering money that had been taken via state capture, the phrase used by South Africans to characterize the vast corruption that occurred under Mr. Zuma's administration.


"We've heard from the people that the ANC is their organization. They have expressed their affection for the ANC to us. They have assured us that thieves and counter-revolutionaries would not be able to take advantage of their organization," Mr. Ramaphosa said.


However, a significant incident that shook the president himself occurred in 2022 when it was revealed that he had hidden at least $580,000 (£458,000) in cash under a couch on his game farm, with the money subsequently taken by thieves.


Impeachment proceedings against Mr. Ramaphosa were recommended by a team of legal experts established by parliament, but the ANC used its parliamentary majority to thwart the move.


Following investigations, which included one by South Africa's public protector, Mr. Ramaphosa denied any misconduct. Police have not yet revealed the findings of their inquiry, however.


Supporters of the African National Congress rejected the president's alleged money-laundering at the rally.


"Mr. Ramaphosa was set up for a trap to make him seem terrible. "He is the greatest president we have ever had," Thando Matidza said to the BBC, praising his promise to eradicate corruption inside the party.


According to a poll conducted last month, South Africans' top worry is corruption, next behind power outages that may last up to 12 hours a day and cause disruptions to homes and businesses.


The ANC is supposed to have magically kept the lights on throughout the campaign and turn them off again after the election, according to cynics, given that there haven't been any power outages in nearly two months.


According to Mr. Ramaphosa, power plants are now receiving "better maintenance," and the ANC will "complete" its "excellent work" in addressing the energy issue during its next time in office.


Even if the ANC doesn't surpass the 50% barrier, it will almost certainly continue to be the biggest party in South Africa despite the country's many issues, which also include water shortages and decaying roads and railroads.


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The Democratic Alliance (DA), the largest opposition party, will conduct its last campaign rally in a 20,000-seat stadium later on Sunday as it is unable to match the ANC's level of support.

It received just around 22% of the vote in an Ipsos opinion survey published last month, while the Social Research Foundation's monitoring poll earlier this month estimated that between 24% and 27% of voters supported it.


The opposition's extreme division has helped the ANC's prospects of continuing to be the largest party. 51 opposition parties are running for seats in the national assembly this year.


Splits, however, have also affected the DA. Following the 2019 election, two of its prominent black leaders, Mmusi Maimane and Herman Mashaba, left the party and established new parties to run in Wednesday's poll.


At his last campaign event, Mr. Ramphosa attacked the DA.

He called the party's promise to gradually eliminate the federal minimum wage "outrageous," particularly "in these times of hardship," without mentioning it.


"These are the same reactionary forces that see something wrong in paying slave wages to illegal migrants while depriving law-abiding workers of the right to a living wage," said Ramaphosa.


Racial minorities, particularly Muslims among the coloured (or mixed-race) South African population, and Asian groups, are the major sources of support for the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Less than 2% of people are Muslims, but because every vote counts, the ANC is hoping that they would support the party because of its strong support for Palestinians and its ability to bring Israel before the International Court of Justice on allegations of genocide, which Israel rejects.


Mr. Ramaphosa screamed the divisive phrase "Free Free Palestine" at the event. Palestine will be free from the river to the sea.


"A ceasefire in Gaza has to happen right now. There must be a release of the hostages detained in Gaza. To avoid widespread hunger, the residents of Gaza must be provided with all the food, gasoline, and other necessities," he said.


Salome Makgoba, an ANC member, praised Mr. Ramaphosa for standing up for the Palestinians, telling the BBC: "The Palestinians helped us throughout apartheid. Now it's our time to pay it forward."


Although the ANC has undoubtedly used the conflict as a key instrument for mobilization, the result of the election is unlikely to be affected by it since voters are more concerned with internal concerns. Instead, they will decide on Wednesday who they believe is best suited to lead South Africa forward.

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