Sooner than later, more Northern Lights as solar storms intensify

For those who saw or appreciated the breathtaking aurora borealis last weekend, there is good news: there will most likely be more in the near future.

In about two weeks, the massive sunspot cluster that flung gas and energy at Earth will revolve back towards us.

Scientists predict that it will likely remain massive and complicated enough to produce other explosions that have the potential to disrupt Earth's magnetic field and produce additional Northern Lights.

The Sun has been emitting more radiation since last Saturday; on Tuesday, a massive solar flare caused worldwide disruptions to high-frequency radio communications.

There will be more sunspots after this one. "Solar maximum" refers to the period in an 11-year cycle when the Sun's activity is at its highest and is approaching.

Space weather is produced when the magnetic poles of the Sun reverse, causing sunspots to shoot forth material.

Since people began methodically studying sunspots in 1755, there have been 25 solar cycles. Although scientists had anticipated it to be quiet, it seems to be stronger than anticipated.

According to Met Office space weather forecaster Krista Hammond, the quantity of these sunspots indicates the severity of a cycle.

However, she claims it doesn't really tell us how powerful the storms will be when they get to Earth.

The largest geomagnetic storm since 2003 occurred last weekend, according to Sean Elvidge, a space environment professor at the University of Birmingham, and a once-in-a-thirty year occurrence.

It was brought on by at least five coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are solar storms and magnetic field eruptions that leave the Sun quickly after one another.

It took them around eighteen hours to arrive to Earth, the place where our magnetic field and the CMEs collided.

Without the magnetosphere, which protects humans from that very potent radiation, there would be no life on Earth.

The storm turned out to be so strong that meteorologists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Met Office gave it a G5, the highest warning grade.

Stories of its repercussions on global communications, power grids and GPS have crept in.

There is a drawback to these storms, according to Ian Muirhead, a space systems expert at the University of Manchester:

Even during the most recent significant storm in 2003, our reliance on technology has increased significantly. Unbeknownst to us, space provides a great deal of our services and is essential to the stability of much of our economy.

Elon Musk, the owner of SpaceX, said on X, previously known as Twitter, that the storm "put a lot of pressure" on his internet-providing Starlink satellites. Voltage spikes were reported by a European Space Agency (ESA) representative about the Starlinks.

As the additional radiation pulsed towards Earth, satellites that we depend on for GPS and navigation also experienced signal disruption, according to ESA.

According to Dr. Elvidge, a trip from San Francisco to Paris was rescheduled to avoid passing over the Arctic, where radiation levels were higher.

High-precision GPS tractors were reported to be impacted by farmers, and users received warnings about outages from the manufacturer, John Deere.

Additionally, a UK-based business called Sen claims that one of their satellites, which records high definition footage of Earth, was left in a "idle" condition for four days, which prevented it from capturing photographs of things like the wildfires in Canada.

As the additional current flowed through the electrical systems, power networks were also under stress.

The national grid in New Zealand, which shares a similar electrical system with the UK, turned off a few circuits nationwide as a precaution to guard against equipment damage.

There was no effect on the transfer of energy, according to the UK National Grid. The UK's power network providers are represented by the Energy Networks Association, which said that it takes preventative measures such as providing "extra back-up generation to deal with any voltage fluctuations that may occur."

Space weather is more than simply an external hazard that exists outside of our planet. The threats from severe space weather are deemed by the authorities to be higher than those from earthquakes or wildfires.

Extreme space weather is rated "four" for possibility and effect on its national risk record, which also includes health pandemics such as COVID-19. "One" denotes the least risky occurrence, while "five" is the most risky.

According to the register, an intense space storm—stronger than the one from last weekend—could result in power outages that injure and kill people.

"In certain regions, a prolonged period of mobile backup power generation may be necessary until damaged electricity transformers are replaced, a process that may require several months," the alert states.

It states that although power restoration in cities can occur in a matter of hours, residents in isolated coastal communities may have to wait months for the replacement of electrical transformers.

A "Carrington-level event," as they are known in the space weather world, is the worst-case scenario.

They're discussing a massive solar storm that occurred one night in 1859 that caused auroras to appear so brightly throughout the globe that many mistakenly believed it was daylight and began preparing breakfast.

The amount of electricity produced was so great that Canadian telegraph operators had to physically unplug equipment for safety before they could resume transmission. Equipment that was damaged caused fires.

The same thing may happen disastrously now.

According to a Royal Academy of Engineering paper, "the general consensus is that a solar superstorm is inevitable, a matter not of 'if' but 'when?'"

Dr. Elvidge adds, "But now we have two tools to aid us: forecasting and preparation."

Solar activity is continuously monitored by forecasters like Krista Hammond via satellites.

They sent out hours in advance warnings to governments and suppliers of essential infrastructure about the mass of CMEs that headed toward Earth last weekend.

"We are aware of it in our situation room at the White House. Local governments get messages via our emergency channels, according to NOAA space weather forecaster Shawn Dahl.

The fact that we really don't seem to have experienced many overt effects of the storm last weekend, despite the dire predictions that severe weather may knock out power for days, may be explained by that forecasting and preparedness.

Mr. Muirhead says, "We are pretty well prepared for these."

Emergency agencies and local authorities test various situations, such as how ambulances will continue to travel even if their GPS signal is lost.

However, he notes that the matter of power supply is delicate, carrying potential financial ramifications, and businesses could be reluctant to reveal the extent of the strain imposed on the network.

Compared to atmospheric weather, space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, but as we send more equipment into space and learn more about the Sun, the likelihood of correctly predicting the next superstorm increases.