Evenly Divided U.S. Party Preferences in 2022 Following GOP Transition

Evenly Divided U.S. Party Preferences in 2022 Following GOP Transition

HISTORICAL POINTS

Republican identification rates were 45% and 44%, respectively. Democratic

From 2012 to 2021, Democrats led by at least three points year.

The majority of Americans continue to identify as independent.

Washington, D.C. In 2022, the party preferences of Americans were equally split, with 44% of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or claiming they were independents with a Democratic leaning, and 45% of U.S. adults identifying as Republicans. With Democrats enjoying at least a three-percentage-point edge in every year of the previous ten years, preferences were last this tightly split in 2011.

More broadly, Democrats have typically prevailed since 1991, the year Gallup started routinely tracking party affiliation and leaning.

The most recent findings are based on aggregated information from Gallup's telephone polls conducted in 2022, which included interviews with over 10,000 American individuals. Gallup asks respondents in every study it does whether they identify as Republicans, Democrats, or independents. The next question asks independents whether they "lean" more toward the Republican or Democratic parties. The measure of partisan identification and leanings taken together provides a sense of the strength of the two major parties in the US population.

One of the better results for the Republican Party over the last three decades is a near tie in party identification and leaning. Only once, in 1991, did a notably larger percentage of Americans identify as Republicans (48%) than Democrats (44%), after then-president George H.W. Bush's victorious leadership of the Persian Gulf War.

Prior to 2010, and 2011, party preferences were tied or divided by one point in 2001 through 2003. The preceding period included the first three years of George W. Bush's administration, which were mostly molded by the strong popular support for Bush after the terrorist atrocities of 9/11. The latter covered the second and third years of Barack Obama's administration, during which time the Tea Party movement gained traction in American politics and his popularity began to decline.

The Republican Party's victory in taking control of the US House of Representatives in 2022 was evidence of their superior performance. Last year, voters nationwide supported Republican U.S. House candidates by a margin of almost three points over Democratic candidates. Republicans, however, were unable to take control of the Senate.

The majority of Americans continue to identify as independents.

In 1988, Gallup started conducting its interviews just over the phone and found that the percentages of Democrats, Republicans, and independents in the United States were comparable. Independents started to surpass Republicans and Democrats in the early 1990s, but that lead started to wane in the early 2000s.

On the other hand, independent identification has increased to previously unheard-of levels since 2009. Currently, there are many more political independents (41%) than Republican (28%) and Democratic (28%) affiliations.

In comparison to 2021, Republican identification increased by one point, while Democratic and independent affiliation decreased by one point.

Additionally, last year was just the ninth occasion in the previous thirty-five years that Democrats did not have at least a somewhat higher party identification lead (of two or more points) than Republicans. In addition, this happened in 1991, 1995, 2001–2005, and 2020.

Since 2011, at least 39% of Americans have self-identified as independent; in every year save the 2016 and 2020 presidential election years, this number has been 40% or higher. Only twice, in 1995 and 2007, did independent identification rise above 39% prior to 2011.

According to a 2022 Gallup research, the millennial generation and Generation X seem to be the main drivers of the rising independent identity as they become older. In previous generations, as Americans became older, they were less inclined to identify as independents. Currently, more than half of Generation X and half of millennials identify as independents, compared to fewer than a third of earlier generations.

In summary

Republicans did not achieve the kind of electoral success they had hoped for last year. Their inability to elect a Speaker of the House this month is evidence that, although winning a majority of House members, they were aiming for a greater majority than they actually achieved. In the Senate, the Republicans were likewise unable to secure a majority, even though they only needed to gain one seat overall.

Republicans did, however, have a stronger year than Democrats in terms of catching up in terms of party identification and leaning among American adults. The 2022 change in party leanings is most likely the result of Americans' discontent with the status of the country during a period when Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress and the president. There were comparable changes in 1994 and 2010. The trends toward stronger Democratic Party identification and leaning seen between 2006 and 2008 are also probably explained by dissatisfaction with the status of the country under Republican government.

If past performance is any indication, party preferences in 2023 could resemble those in 2022. Party differences were comparable to those of the previous year in 1995, 2007, 2011, and 2019 after the president's party's loss of House power in the midterm elections.