Haley is leading Trump in the CBS News poll in New Hampshire, but she is still in control in Iowa

 Haley is leading Trump in the CBS News poll in New Hampshire, but she is still in control in Iowa

In New Hampshire, Nikki Haley has emerged as the leading contender to Donald Trump despite the latter still holding a sizable lead in the non-Trump vote. Haley has the highest ratings among the leading contenders for being seen as "likable" and "reasonable," and she almost matches Trump for being seen as "prepared" – impressive considering that she took office. She is now seen as the most electable of Trump's rivals and is campaigning in part on that basis.

In the meanwhile, Trump has extended his already commanding advantage in Iowa, where prospective caucus attendees see him as a "strong leader," his followers claim he "represents Iowa values," and the state's voters, almost half of whom identify as MAGA movement members, are encouraging him.

These characteristics, however, highlight the distinctions between the qualities that Trump supporters and non-Trump voters value in a candidate.

In New Hampshire, Trump is not considered the most favored or equitable candidate, even if he leads by a wide margin. Primary voters see him as a "strong leader" and are overwhelmingly of the opinion that he will beat Joe Biden.

How leftist voters in New Hampshire benefit Haley

Haley has benefited from the more liberal votes in New Hampshire than in Iowa. She is currently running closely to Trump among the self-described moderates and independents with whom she has gained traction. (Independent voters may and often do cast ballots in the GOP primaries.) These are the same populations that, on paper, seem to be more receptive to a contender—if not the nominee—than to Trump.

Voters see Haley as the candidate who differs from Trump the most in terms of personality when asked to compare the contenders to the front-runners. Furthermore, about 70% of respondents state that they would rather support a candidate whose personality is distinct from Trump's if he were not the front-runner.

There is considerable overlap between Haley and Chris Christie when voters are asked which candidates they are least considering; the majority of those who are contemplating Christie are also considering Haley. However, Christie receives more unfavorable reviews; some call her likeable, prepared, or sensible. Furthermore, the majority of people see him as a longshot in the bid to unseat Biden.

significant cultural problems

Though there are more liberals in New Hampshire than elsewhere, Republican voters there have a tendency to support various socially conservative issues that have been brought up throughout the campaign, most notably limitations on medical operations to alter a child's sex and on education. Regarding the subject of gender identity. In Iowa, more conservative voters find resonance with both concepts much more.

Regarding abortion, these two states are quite different from one another. The vast majority of Iowa GOP caucus attendees believe that abortion ought to be prohibited in their state. This sets him apart from the majority of New Hampshire primary voters, who support the state's legalization of abortion. (And Haley is leading among those who want the GOP nominee to oppose a federal ban on abortion there among primary voters.)

Concurrently, the notion of mass deportations has garnered significant backing among Iowan and New Hampshire voters, particularly from those who favor Trump.

Trump maintains a sizable advantage in Iowa.

In Iowa, the race has taken a different turn. Not only does Trump continue to lead comfortably, but since September, his advantage has grown even more. Not only is he winning, but the majority of prospective caucus attendees are actively considering him as their sole option. And the stock has increased with Trump and no one else in mind.

Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are not as likely to identify as "MAGA" as Iowans are. Additionally, Trump's followers think he embodies Iowan principles.

Moreover, almost all Republican voters in Iowa who are considering supporting Trump agree that things were better during his administration.

Moreover, Trump's followers are the most committed to their decision. Most claim to be "very strong – I have decided" in their support.

Since September, Ron DeSantis's popularity in Iowa has not increased much. Despite his extensive travels around the state, he is doing no better than those of other candidates among caucus attendees who like politicians who personally interact with voters. Though the former president himself continues to lead the field, he is seen to be the most comparable to Trump in terms of policy in a state that would prefer a candidate similar to Trump if he could not be Trump.

With his present popularity, we predict that Trump will win between 10 and 16 delegates in New Hampshire and a majority of delegates in Iowa (21-26). With the backing of Haley in New Hampshire

With DeSantis and Christie's backing, they would get 5-8 delegates, with the state's 10% need for delegates yet to be met.

The dates of these CBS News/YouGov polls are December 8–15, 2023. They are predicated on representative samples of 855 voters in New Hampshire and 1,054 registered voters in Iowa. Based on the curriculum of the U.S. Census, samples were weighted based on gender, age, race, education, and geographic location.

1 demographic survey in addition to previous ballots. The margin of error for the findings, which are given among probable Republican caucus/primary voters, is ±5.5 points in New Hampshire (n=459) and ±6.1 points in Iowa (n=478).