The Six Political Objectives of Nitish Kumar: Bihar Caste Census and Quota Increase

 The Six Political Objectives of Nitish Kumar: Bihar Caste Census and Quota Increase

Nitish Kumar is optimistic that his extensive outreach to the OBC population would give his faltering political career a boost.

The move by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to raise the OBC quota is anticipated to strengthen the Mahagathbandhan's (MGB) chances in the state elections of 2025 and provide him political capital ahead of the national elections in 2024.

The Bihar government has approved raising the reservation percentage from the existing 60% to 75%. This percentage consists of 10% for EWS, 20% for SCs, 2% for STs, and 43% for OBCs. In the current Assembly session, a Bill introduced by his administration is probably on the way.

A caste and socioeconomic census that revealed that a quarter of Bihar's population earns less than Rs 6,000 a month and that OBCs make up 63% of the population supports the conclusion. The ruling could encounter legal challenges like to those faced by other states that have endeavored to surpass the 50 percent threshold established by the Supreme Court.

But Nitish Kumar seems to have hidden his tracks since the ruling is supported by a survey and census, and the dire situation of EBCs may be seen as an unusual circumstance, as stated in the Marathas quota ruling.

Nitish Kumar's objectives:

BJP: Capture and Checkmate

The move is an attempt to deceive the BJP by portraying it as anti-reservation and anti-backward. Given that the federal government has rejected a national caste census, his move has placed the state BJP unit in a difficult position.

He was compelled to support his decision by the state BJP, which has been fighting the Nitish-Lalu coalition tooth and nail. Nitish and the INDIA bloc will utilize this to draw attention to the BJP's contradictions and compel the central leadership to make a decision over the countrywide caste census.

2. Take the Lead As VP Singh 2.0

With former Janata Dal members like the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (Secular), and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) losing its luster from the 1990s to 2000s, socialist forces have been weakened nationally. Nitish aspires to carry on the tradition of former prime minister VP Singh by advocating for the rights of OBCs.

Taking the demand for "jitni abadi utna haq" to its logical conclusion, Nitish has become the first chief minister in the nation to reveal the results of the caste census and enhance the quota. Since reservations are a delicate subject, survey leaders PM Manmohan Singh and CM Siddaramaiah have dared not make public the results of their own studies.

3. Resurrect Mandal

In order to oppose Kamandal, Nitish Kumar intends to bring Mandal back to life. Given that the inauguration of the Ram Mandir is scheduled for January 22 of next year, the BJP may claim credit for the building and thereby fulfill its long-standing pledge. The BJP seeks to gain ground in Hindutva-charged Uttar Pradesh, which is seen to hold the keys to power.

The OBCs will be persuaded by Nitish and the INDIA bloc's partners that the BJP, which in its early years had a tendency to favor higher castes, is using them just for political advantage and not providing them what is properly theirs.

4. Stop INC from Assuming Liability 

Lately, Nitish has been critical of Congress for their procrastination on the INDIA bloc. He has said that the Congress has wasted months that should have been spent to finalize the campaign, platform, and seat allocation by concentrating on state elections.

Additionally, he is moving gingerly since it seems that Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party have taken over the OBC census, which was his initiative. The problem is being brought up by the Congress on all forums, and they have appropriated Nitish Kumar's concept by proposing a caste census in their state election manifesto. He is leery of Congress, seeing as the country's larger brother claiming credit for his accomplishments in this area.

5. Guarantee JDU Keeps 16 LS MPs

In 2019, JD(U) along with the BJP fought 17 seats, and won 16 of them. He must replicate that performance in order to be heard at the federal level. Transitioning to MGB somewhat offsets the loss of OBC and upper caste BJP votes, since they are offset by RJD Muslim-Yadav votes. The crafty Nitish, however, is aware that the Modi factor, which is hard to account for, contributed 25% of the party's votes.

Furthermore, since Modi is an OBC, the BJP, which had less support from OBCs in the Vidhan Sabha polls, has an advantage in the general elections. Nitish is hoping that by raising the quota, the OBC votes would be consolidated in favor of MGB, giving his party a significant number of seats, and then, much as with Deve Gowda in 1996, lady luck will take care of the rest.

6. Guarantee MGB Wins State Polls in 2025

Bihar will have state elections in October or November of 2025. Given that he would be very close to 75 years old at the time, it may be Nitish Kumar's last election. In the 2015 state elections, MGB easily beat BJP. Nitish expects that the OBC-EBC + MY-Mahadalit coalition, together with the quota hike, would enable MGB win big once again.

To sum up, Nitish wants to solidify his candidacy for the top position and establish himself as the socialist forces' glue. One may argue that the Bihar quota hike is his last political ploy. In order to establish himself as the national political figure who provided the underprivileged their just compensation, he also wants the caste census to become a national issue.