Shinde buys the Maratha quota some time, but the unhappiness that is igniting the demonstrations is a ticking time bomb.

 Shinde buys the Maratha quota some time, but the unhappiness that is igniting the demonstrations is a ticking time bomb.

Manoj Jarange Patil, the newest poster child for the Maratha community, acted swiftly to break his indefinite fast and provide the government two months to resolve the Maratha demand for a blanket quota. Although it put an end to the occasional violence and flare-ups that threatened to destroy his movement, quotas are unlikely to be the only solution to the socioeconomic suffering of rural Maharashtra.

CM Eknath Shinde is receiving help from the BJP's regional leaders and second rung in handling the issue.

With regard to the divisive subject of Maratha reservation, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who is now faced with some of the most difficult political difficulties, has received some reprieve.

The first challenge is akin to a hanging sword: the Supreme Court has asked Speaker of the Assembly Rahul Narvekar to rule on the outstanding petitions by the end of this year. The CM and his MLAs, who split from the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and took control of its poll symbol, could potentially be disqualified from the legislature.

The second challenge is even more daunting: navigating the legal and statutory procedures to guarantee the Maratha community a permanent reservation. Given that Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has stated that Shinde is under siege and is addressing the matter urgently, the BJP is pulling away from the controversy in an attempt to appease and safeguard its base of OBC voters. Naturally, the BJP has sent out its second rung and regional leaders to help Shinde handle this issue.

Time Is Running Out For Shinde's Two Tasks

There is a workaround for the first challenge: Fadnavis has already made hints that Shinde would be elected to the legislative council and continue to serve as chief minister in the event that he is disqualified. The second problem is more difficult since the Maratha youngsters would not accept anything less than reservation. The protest leader himself provided Shinde with some reprieve.

Manoj Jarange Patil, the newest poster child for the Maratha community, discreetly called off his indefinite fast and granted the state administration an additional two months to resolve any legal or constitutional difficulties. This would allow the group to get complete and unconditional reservation.

After putting the problem to rest for a month after Jarange ended his first indefinite fast in September, it seems that the CM has been working behind the scenes to persuade Jarange to give up his firm stance for the time being and allow his administration more time to find a solution. Shinde and his administration are under pressure, as Jarange is issuing another ultimatum.

As deft as it was, Jarange's action instantly subdued the escalating tensions and stopped the intermittent bloodshed that threatened to bring his movement—whose center is now located in rural Marathwada—to disrepute. This was undermined by Shinde's outreach to all political parties last week, with the exception of inviting Uddhav Thackeray, displaying his petty behavior in handling such a significant matter.

Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, two of Shinde's deputies, have been absent from the picture for the last two weeks. The former chose to focus on his party's campaign in the upcoming assembly elections in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh rather than the Maharashtra potboiler, while the latter is ill with dengue.

The Demand for Maratha Reservations

To everyone's amazement, Jarange had the wisdom to break his indefinite fast, indicating his readiness to soften his tough stance when he saw the agitation—which he said had been instigated by some Shinde government elements—turn violent and tainted.

Now, the emphasis is once again on the actions of the Shinde administration. Right now, it appears to be working on two different fronts: first, determining the number of Maratha households that have previously received "Kunbi" caste certificates; second, getting ready to make a strong case before the Supreme Court to overturn its decision in the previous case and hear the state's most recent position.

Millions of pages are being scanned by a commission led by a former high court judge to determine whether or not Maratha families possessing Kunbi certificates should be given reservation rights right now. Jarange feels uncomfortable with this decision. About 12,000 homes have received these certificates thus far, and that figure is probably much more if you double that number by the rationale that their close and immediate relatives would also be Kunbis.

Jarange and his tribe are in favor of giving all Marathas a general reserve, regardless of whether or not they possess Kunbi certificates. Jarange has maintained, "Whoever demands it, should get the caste certificate." "No other way out."

A prominent debate in genealogy has been the shared ancestry of the Maratha and Kunbi people. According to certain research, the later families made the decision to enlist in Shivaji's Maratha empire's army while the former households continued to practice their customary occupation of farming. This split persisted for many centuries until the Maratha community began to experience political and social challenges during the post-liberalization era.

Kunbi Anxieties, Maratha Perception of Decline

The economic and social collapse that the Maratha peasantry has endured over the last 20 years, brought on by the agricultural crisis and the emergence of the OBCs as a formidable political threat, is the driving force behind this movement, which began with the silent Maratha Kranti Morchas in 2016 and continues to this day.

Unlike the Marathas, who once took pleasure in being in the open category, the Kunbis, or landed peasants, are mostly found in Vidarbha and fall within the OBC group. No more. The OBCs, less so than the Dalits (scheduled castes) and Adivasis (scheduled tribes), have become a little nervous as a result of the once-dominant Maratha group's request for reservation. They worry that if the Maratha community is included to the OBC category, it would become overcrowded.

Since this complex subject has surrounded a divided Maharashtra politics, it is this acute societal angst that is fueling the present political slugfest. Nobody wants to come out as anti-Maratha, and nobody wants to be overtly supportive of the community to the point that it enrages other groups, particularly the OBCs. This along with the dire economic circumstances exacerbates the socio-political predicament.

Meanwhile, Shinde seems to have started the project with a military mindset. The immediate relief would be to include individuals within the OBC rubric to buy more time to work out a reservation formula for people who do not have such certificates. He requested the setting up of special cells at all divisional along with district collectorates to scan papers of the Marathas and verify who will have got the Kunbi certificates. There will be elections in 2019. Shinde has to put out the fire right now.

Quotas: A Collapsing Cake

But now that the dice has been thrown, all social groups that want an equal piece of the cake must be happy and devise a reservation mechanism for the Marathas.

In the meanwhile, the cake has shrunk: There are very few jobs in both the public and private sectors. A resolution that the Shinde administration released last month aiming to outsource all posts via independent contractors had to be rescinded in response to criticism from all sides.

Farming is facing a crisis. Not a single new industry has emerged. The prices of education and health care are over the roof. The new ambition class is hankering for possibilities that do not exist, especially among young people. It seems as if the future is more unclear than ever.