Four unexpected events that might sway the US election in 2024

 Four unexpected events that might sway the US election in 2024

After a year, it seems like the 2024 election will be a rerun of the 2020 contest, but with Donald Trump facing off against Joe Biden as president.

There is a general feeling of irritation that voters have just one option and that everything seems to be following a pattern. Even the polls seem to be showing a close battle.

However, any history would tell you that anything may upset the race in a single year. A hostage situation in 1979 may have lost President Jimmy Carter reelection. Furthermore, a pandemic in 2020 changed the nation.

These four unexpected events have the potential to alter the outcome of this election.

What happens if an independent candidate becomes popular?

By Kay Katty.

It is very unlikely that you will become US President if you are neither a Democrat nor a Republican. However, third-party candidates have historically flipped elections, and this might happen in 2024 as well.

Rich billionaire Ross Perot, who received 19% of the vote in 1992, is sometimes held responsible for the Republicans' failure to win the presidency. Ralph Nader, the Green Party's 2000 nominee, received 97,488 votes in Florida, which helped George W. Bush win the swing state. Jill Stein, the 2016 Green Party nominee, is said by some to have harmed Hillary Clinton.

There could be a similar upset in this election. This week, I spoke with a top American politician who said that the poor popularity ratings of Republican front-runner Donald Trump and President Joe Biden would provide room for more players. This is supported by a recent Gallup survey.

There are currently two independent contenders in the race. Cornel West, a progressive activist, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a recent Democratic defector. According to surveys conducted before to his move, he could get the support of around 20% of Democratic voters. Kennedy, who draws in conspiracy theorists, may also steal votes from Donald Trump now that he is an independent.

Given how close this election is expected to be, even a small number of votes for a third-party candidate might have a significant impact.

Can anything happen to one of them before Election Day?

By Iqbal Nomia

Indeed, as we often hear, both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are elderly. Trump will be 78 years old and Biden will be 82 on Inauguration Day in 2025. Though neither of them seems to be in bad condition, what if anything did happen to them in the days leading up to the election?

Well, that depends on when you ask.

Plenty of people on both sides are eager to run for the nomination if they pass away or become very ill between now and New Year's Day in 2023. However, when states finalize their primary ballots, things get more tricky.

How does the Republican Party choose its candidate for president?

The other 2024 Democratic contenders

Their name would remain on the national ballot even in the worst-case scenario, which occurs in mid-October 2024. The Constitution says you can't be sworn in, but you may still run while dead.

This has occurred before: Mel Carnahan was a US Senate candidate in 2000 when he was killed in an aircraft accident while traveling to a campaign event. His wife, Jean, retained office until a special election was called in 2002 after he was elected posthumously.

The vice president would take office in the event that the victorious candidate passes away after Election Day but before inauguration. In order to replace themselves, they would then need to select a vice president, who would need congressional approval.

Given how complex it is, let's hope that every contender remains in excellent health!

What happens if a conflict abroad becomes more intense?

By Barbara Usher Plett

Faced with two major worldwide crises—Israel's war against Hamas and Russia's invasion of Ukraine—President Biden is seeking reelection. Not to mention the ominous background of China's constantly escalating military pressure on Taiwan's airspace.

His staff has attempted to use this to their political advantage by presenting him as a trustworthy leader, and he receives comparatively favorable ratings in the polls for his handling of the two major conflicts. However, concerning tendencies are already emerging for the president's campaign, chief among them being a decline in support among young Democratic voters, a critical cohort enraged by Biden's ardent support of Israel while Palestinian deaths rise.

The Israel-Gaza war exposes US politicians to danger.

And it would completely destabilize calculations and jumble the election year if any of these hostilities extended beyond their existing boundaries, for example, if Russia attacked a NATO member state or if armed organizations aligned with Iran joined the Hamas campaign against Israel.

Would the United States be pulled in from its current position of deterrence on the sidelines?

Would Donald Trump, his probable competitor, suffer from the current global chaos? Would Trump get support from Americans who are tired of supporting and maybe going back to war abroad?

They have no control over a lot of things, particularly in the Middle East. It's not a nice place to be for a presidential contender.

What happens if Donald Trump gets imprisoned?

Author: Gary O'Donoghue

Four separate trials including 91 criminal allegations against the former president are expected to begin next year.

Even if found guilty, the highest possible term is hundreds of years in prison, although few legal experts believe that is probable.

Without success, Trump's attorneys have been attempting to push out the proceedings until after the election. They are aware that winning the election would likely result in a four-year delay since the majority of legal experts believe that the only way to bring charges against a sitting president is via congressional impeachment.

Could Trump go to jail? and other important questions

What is the extent of Donald Trump's legal issues?

Nothing prevents him from winning the election even if he is imprisoned before to it.

He may still run for president despite having a criminal record – a candidate who was incarcerated 100 years ago received over a million votes. Although it would undoubtedly hinder any campaigning, surveys indicate that many Republican voters would not be deterred.

He may be able to clear his record of any federal convictions if he were elected while incarcerated, but he wouldn't be able to do so if he was being held in one of the two state cases. That brings up the odd prospect of holding the office of president while incarcerated.

Even the nation's brightest legal minds are baffled by the fact that we are operating in really uncharted area.