Diwali 2023: Will Nifty provide double-digit gains in Samvat 2080 after rising by around 10% in Samvat 2079?

 Diwali 2023: Will Nifty provide double-digit gains in Samvat 2080 after rising by around 10% in Samvat 2079?

By reaching milestone after milestone in Samvat 2079, the Indian market made history. On September 11, 2023, the BSE Sensex topped 67,900 and the Nifty crossed 20,000, both rising by over 10 percent over Samvat 2079.

By reaching milestone after milestone in Samvat 2079, the Indian market made history. On September 11, 2023, the BSE Sensex topped 67,900 and the Nifty crossed 20,000, both rising by over 10 percent over Samvat 2079. In comparison, the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap gained 24 and 31 percent, respectively.

Given the ongoing conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, the US 10-year yield top, growing global inflation, rising oil costs, and a slowdown in spending, the Indian market's upside is remarkable. Investors from all different classes drove the upswing. 

Samvat 2079's top sectors were Nifty FMCG (+15.7 percent), Nifty PSU Bank (+42.6 percent), Nifty Real Estate (+37.5 percent), and Nifty Auto (+18.6 percent).

Will the current bull run in Samvat 2080 continue, or will macroeconomic factors put pressure on the Indian market going forward? See what the experts have to say.

SVP of Technical Research at Religare Broking Ltd. is Ajit Mishra.

Since the last Samvat, the markets have shown double-digit increases, and this trend is probably going to continue in the future. However, given that a general election is planned for next year, volatility may be greater than usual. In addition to local considerations, international signals are crucial in determining the mood of the market, and the current situation does not provide any clarity about the path that the market will take next. Positive attitude may be further fueled in the future by better sentiment on the international stage, particularly in US markets.

Axis Securities' MD and CEO, Pranav Haridasan

The storyline of this new Samvat is characterized by "Higher for Longer" interest rates, erratic bond yields, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and varying oil prices. On the home front, meanwhile, the Indian economy's prospects seem much better and more optimistic. India is still well-positioned for development in the midst of a turbulent global environment, which will be a major factor supporting Indian stocks going forward. Other encouraging aspects include the strengthening of corporate India's balance sheet and the much better state of the Indian banking sector. With the help of double-digit profits growth, they will make sure that Indian stocks can easily generate double-digit returns over the course of the next two to three years.

The managing director of Swastika Investmart Ltd. is Sunil Nyati.

As election season draws near, there are a number of reasons why Indian stocks should rise sharply in the next year. Chief among them is the impending Assembly elections in May 2024, which should give the governing party a big boost. Now is a good time for investors and traders to think about building a short-term portfolio.

Strong domestic liquidity and solid fundamentals support the very favorable overall outlook for the Indian equities market. Moreover, a number of variables, including as the state of the global economy, the growing cost of capital, and the local political climate, have caused FIIs to decrease their holdings in the Indian equities market. The Nifty is expected to maintain its historical upward trajectory of 24,000 if the governing party wins a majority in the elections. In the event that the elections have a different conclusion, the Nifty might fall due to the possibility of a brief worldwide recession or geopolitical tensions that could destabilize the stock market and bring about an uneasy moment.

Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani

In the future, investors, finance ministries, and central bankers will have to contend with sticky inflation, which is being caused by supply constraints in commodities, and rising interest rates. There is no way to prevent a worldwide economic recession if this problem is not handled quickly. In addition to the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine, the new Middle East confrontation between Israel and Hamas has the potential to deflect attention, divert resources, and reduce investor risk appetite worldwide.

Moving ahead, we anticipate market volatility during the first half of 2024, even as the results of state and federal elections are keenly monitored, as are the consequences of the two geopolitical events. Even if local fund inflows have not decreased, once global risk appetite picks back up, we would need to see a return of FPI flows.

Tradejini's COO, Trivesh D

India's economic future seems very bright as we approach Samvat 2080, which is further supported by the country's growing prominence as a manufacturing powerhouse. The equities market, which reflects the nation's economic trajectory, is full of prospects, especially in industries like semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) that are ready for innovation and global reach. In addition to being financial tools, stocks in the manufacturing and technology industries are a gauge of India's economic aspirations and inventive potential. Samvat 2080's official investment discourse centers on identifying and using these development vectors, which are expected to shape India's economic story in the years to come.

Mastertrust's Managing Director, Harjeet Singh Arora

Given the increasing underlying positive factors, the market is expected to maintain its current upward trend through Vikram Samvat 2080. Well-known international banks and financial organizations have voiced confidence in the Indian market in no uncertain terms. Strong corporate performance, striking domestic economic data, and mounting anticipation for the return of the business-friendly Modi administration are setting the ground for a positive situation. FDI inflows into India reached a record high of $83.6 billion in 2021–2022, up from US$45.15 billion in 2014–2015. The belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve has completed its cycle of rate hikes adds credence to the optimistic feeling and enhances the favorable picture for the market.

Kunal Ambasta, Chief Investment Officer and Co-Founder of Liquide

The Indian economy is poised for significant expansion due to a confluence of factors including robust fundamentals, the influx of modern investors, remarkable corporate profits, and a growing middle class that is spending more money. With inflation predicted to be reasonably steady (at around 5%) and GDP growth forecast at 6.3% for 2023–2024, significant outperformance is more probable.

Although the results of state and national elections will be closely watched, most experts predict that markets will remain volatile until the first half of 2024. Nevertheless, for the entire year, they are very optimistic about the Indian market and the economy and believe that the bull run will continue in Samvat 2080.