Agri Picks Report: Geojit, November 01, 2023

 Agri Picks Report: Geojit, November 01, 2023

According to Geojit, the Northeast monsoon began its rainy season across southern India on October 21.

Geojit's Agri Picks report

The IMD states that the Northeast monsoon rains began in south India on October 21. October had 50.8 mm of rain overall, 33% less than average, and 58.7 mm of rain across the southern peninsula, 60% less than average. October rainfall across the southern peninsula was sixth lowest since 1901. Russia Rainfall in November is expected to be typical, falling between 77 to 123% of the long-term average for both the south peninsula and the nation as a whole. El Nino conditions are expected to last until the early summer of the following year. In its first projection, the Cotton Association of India predicted today that the nation would produce 29.5 million bales of cotton in 2023–24 (October–Sep), 7.5% less than in the previous year. 

A bale of cotton weighs 170 kilograms. The association's latest estimates indicate that 31.9 million bales of cotton were produced in India year 2022–2023 (October–Sep). According to a press statement from the organization today, cotton production in the north zone—which includes Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—is projected to remain stable at 4.3 million bales. The prediction for the central zone, which includes Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat, is down from 19.5 million bales last year to 18.0 million bales. 

Moreover, the south zone projection is expected to be lower, at 6.8 million bales, compared to 7.5 million bales the previous year. The remaining production is accounted for by other states. Estimates for the season 2023–2024 put the overall supply of cotton at 34.6 million bales, a decrease of 940,000 bales from the previous season. According to the organization, imports will total 2.2 million bales in 2023–2024, which is 950,000 bales more than in 2022–2023. 

31.1 million bales of cotton were consumed between October and September of last year. From 1.55 million bales last year to 1.40 million bales this year, export shipments are predicted to be lower. According to the announcement, the ending stock forecast for the 2023–24 season has changed from 2.89 million bales to 2.10 million bales.