Nijjar killing: US worries Canada-India dispute might change China-countering strategy

 Nijjar killing: US worries Canada-India dispute might change China-countering strategy

Some officials in the Biden administration are worried that a confrontation between Canada and India might undermine US policy toward the Indo-Pacific, which aims to reduce China's influence there and elsewhere. 

The Indian government may have been engaged in the assassination of a Sikh separatist near Vancouver, according to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's charges, the administration has maintained in public. However, this is a problem between the two nations.

However, US officials have also encouraged India to assist with the inquiry on many occasions. India, which disputes the accusations, has so far rejected such requests.

Officially speaking, US officials say they think Trudeau is telling the truth. Additionally, they are concerned that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be using methods similar to those allegedly employed by North Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia to suppress critics abroad.

Many US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the extreme sensitivity of the matter expressed concern that the Canada-India dispute could have significant ramifications for one of the administration's top foreign policy priorities: the Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to counter China's growing assertiveness in the region.

Canada, a Pacific nation and important NATO ally that shares the longest undefended border in the world with the US, as well as India, are essential to US-led attempts to portray a unified and democratic front against rising Chinese aggressiveness.

The government has mostly concentrated on dealing with China as a competitor and the potential global danger it presents, apart from opposing Russia's conflict in Ukraine. In order to do this, it has increased its diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific, notably by forming a leaders group that brings together the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. The creation of the so-called Quad has been praised by President Joe Biden as an important component of that endeavor.

The concern is that the conflict will worsen, similar to how Britain's disagreement with Russia over the 2018 poisoning of former Russian agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, did. However, this is just a worst-case scenario envisioned by US authorities.

In that instance, Britain accused Russia of attempting to kill a British citizen on its territory and expelled 23 Russian diplomats. It also asked its NATO allies and European partners to take comparable steps, which practically everyone agreed to do. In solidarity with its British partner, the US also ordered the closing of Russia's consulate in Seattle and expelled 60 Russian diplomats. In retaliation, Russia took similar measures, including shutting the US embassy in St. Petersburg.

US officials started to worry about the possibility that Canada might decide to go "full Skripal" with mass diplomatic expulsions and request, as the British did in 2018, that its allies do the same shortly after Trudeau made his allegations public last month and expelled a senior Indian diplomat.

These sources said that the US would be forced to agree if Canada requested to remove a sizable number of Indian diplomats. That may then cause a breakdown in ties between the US and India, opening the door for India to either scale down or withdraw totally from the Quad.

There is now relief that it hasn't reached that stage yet, but that might change.

Danny Russel, a former top diplomat in President Barack Obama's administration and current vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said, "I'm not saying we're in the danger zone yet. But I would undoubtedly be paying attention to the issue.

The "Five Eyes" alliance of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the US provided information that backed the claim that an Indian was involved in the murder.

Even before Canada made the charges known, Trudeau and Modi had tense exchanges when attending the Group of 20 summit last month in New Delhi. A few days later, Canada canceled an upcoming trade trip to India.

India stepped up the conflict this week by ordering Canada to expel 41 of its 62 ambassadors from the nation. Melanie Joly, the foreign minister of Canada, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have made suggestions that reciprocal action won't be taken.

Although Trudeau has made an effort to defuse the diplomatic conflict by asserting that Canada is "not looking to provoke or escalate," sources said Washington's worries remain.