How China is battling Taiwan in the shadow war

 How China is battling Taiwan in the shadow war

Beijing claimed that there was no such line when Taiwan raised the alarm last month about a record number of Chinese fighter jets flying over their unofficial boundary.

Another step up in Chinese war games was the 103 fighter jets China flew over Taiwan, 40 of which flew into the island's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Beijing, which has long claimed Taiwan, has routinely practiced surrounding the island with fighter jets and military ships during the past year. A particularly ominous aspect has been taken in the military exercises in light of China's pledges to "reunite" with Taiwan.

The maneuvers have so far avoided invasion and remained in the "grey zone," which refers to military strategies that lie somewhere between war and peace.

However, the US-China relationship has deteriorated to the point that Taiwan has become a tinderbox. According to observers, Beijing is using grey zone tactics to maintain control over Taipei without ever firing a shot.

What does China want to accomplish?

Grey zone warfare strategies aim to undermine an enemy over a lengthy period of time, and many claim that is exactly what China is attempting to do with Taiwan.

Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King's College in London, claims that Beijing is regularly crossing Taiwan's ADIZ in an effort to gauge the extent to which Taipei will go to fortify it.

Governments employ the ADIZ, which they have proclaimed and which is theoretically considered international airspace, to keep an eye on foreign aircraft.

Fighting jets have been regularly dispatched by Taiwan to warn off Chinese aircraft in the ADIZ, a response that Prof. Patalano warned might eventually put a strain on Taiwan's resources.

But that is not the only objective or advantage. According to observers, one benefit of the exercises is that China can test its own capabilities, such as force coordination and surveillance. Additionally, they follow China's pattern of normalizing escalating military pressure on Taiwan in an effort to test its defenses and the backing of other countries for the island.

According to David Gitter, a non-resident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research in the US, "This normalization may one day serve to mask the first moves of a real attack, making it difficult for Taiwan and [its chief ally] the United States to prepare accordingly."

Beijing's actions also shifted the baseline to refute Taiwan's claims that the Taiwan Strait, a body of water separating the island from the Chinese mainland, constitutes a border with China.

When asked about Taiwan's response to the drills in September, Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, stated that "there is no so-called median line" in the strait.

Taiwan introduces new submarine to ward off China China and Taiwan engage in cat-and-mouse game in highly contested sea

Additionally, it serves to dull the public's awareness of the threat posed by such a force, which might erode political support for a more committed Taiwanese military readiness for possible war, according to Mr. Gitter.

The majority of observers concur that Taiwan's military, which consists of a smaller army, a smaller navy, and outdated artillery, would be no match for a far more powerful China. According to a survey conducted last year by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, the majority of Taiwanese (a little over half) believe that China will triumph if there is war, while only a third feel that Taiwan will prevail.

However, there doesn't seem to be much of a desire for a bigger defense expenditure. According to a recent survey by the University of Nottingham, nearly half of Taiwanese people believe the current expenditure is enough, while a third believe it is already excessive.

When does China use strategies for the gray zone?

In reaction to what it views as provocative high-level political discussions between Taiwan and the US, China frequently conducts military exercises.

Since then, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022, these have gotten bigger and more frequent. Beijing replied by conducting a week of exercises, which included four days of live-fire training, then anti-submarine attack and sea raid maneuvers.

Then, in April, after meeting with then-US Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, China practiced "sealing off" Taiwan in so-called joint sword drills with its Shandong aircraft carrier in action.

China even sent jets to Taiwan's east Pacific coast, indicating that it was practicing strikes there rather than from the west, which faces China's mainland. China seems to be practicing a blockade of Taiwan more and more. However, according to Pentagon sources, it is unlikely to succeed because doing so would give Taipei's allies more time to mobilize.

The drills in September also came after Taiwan's vice president William Lai's trip to the US. After China referred to Mr. Lai, the front-runner in the January presidential election, as a "troublemaker" for traveling to the US, Taipei issued a similar warning.

Additionally, some observers think that China was attempting to project strength in response to rumors regarding its missing defense minister Li Shangfu.

Additionally, the strategies are not just used in the stalemate with Taiwan. Similar tactics are used by China to virtually all of the South China Sea, which could be crucial to gaining control of Taiwan.

The area's waterways are home to a multibillion-dollar shipping channel and are thought to have enormous deposits of oil and gas. In contested waters where the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei have conflicting claims, Beijing has erected massive buildings over reefs. Despite a judgement by an international tribunal that Beijing's claims lack legal standing, it has also sent coast guard and militia ships to obstruct Philippine security and fishing vessels in these areas.

Can these "grey zone" strategies get worse?

The drills have resulted in a more militarized area, whether it be in the sky above Taiwan or the waters surrounding it.

Additionally, the South China Sea has seen an increase in military drills by the US and its allies. The US and the Philippines have started a new round this week.

Even if neither side intentionally provokes, experts worry that the accumulation of warships and fighter aircraft has increased the likelihood of a costly error of judgment. Even though the US claims it is working to resurrect the hotline, which would assist prevent any unanticipated escalation, the militaries of the two nations no longer directly speak with one another.

Despite starting up high-level talks with the US, China hasn't indicated that it will give in on Taiwan.

According to Mr. Gitter, the record invasions in September demonstrate that such actions will continue as part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's policies even in the absence of "foreign triggers." The recent statements made by Mr. Xi that Taiwan "must and will be" reunited with China and that he "will never promise to give up the use of force" are noteworthy.

However, analysts claim that China will have to walk a fine line in the coming months since over-flexing its muscles might also help Mr. Lai, whom China views as a pro-Taiwan independence candidate, win the important election in January.

Beijing will also deploy its most modern aircraft carrier, the Fujian, into service the following year, which Taipei claims will strengthen China's potential to blockade the Taiwan Strait.

According to Mr. Gitter, China's military exercises will only grow greater and more regular.

"We can expect these numbers to creep ever upwards until they perhaps even approach levels one might see in a real attack," the speaker stated.