Climate crisis: As September sees record temperatures, 2023 is on course to be the warmest year

Climate crisis: As September sees record temperatures, 2023 is on course to be the warmest year

In New Delhi:

Weather agencies reported that September broke their heat record by 0.5°C and was significantly hotter than the pre-industrial average by 1.75°C, indicating that this year is on track to be the warmest on record as what they called a "ominous" sign of how the climate crisis is manifesting itself.

According to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global mean temperature to date has been calculated to be 0.52°C over the current average and 1.4°C above the pre-industrial average. Scientists have issued dire warnings about cataclysmic natural disasters if global warming exceeds 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial era (1850–1900).

This year has seen some of the worst flooding and heat waves ever, as well as record-breaking high sea surface temperatures and unheard-of polar ice melting. And because the El Nino, a process that causes the world to heat up, is only now beginning to manifest, experts worry that there will be more to come.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 is now on pace to be the warmest year on record. "This continued an extended streak of extraordinary land and ocean surface temperatures and is an ominous indication about the speed with which greenhouse gases are impacting our climate," it added.

The European Center on a medium-range Weather Forecasts' Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports that the average surface temperature for September was 16.38°C. This was 0.5°C warmer than the previous warmest September, which occurred in 2020.

The pre-industrial average (1850–1900) temperature was 1.40°C higher than the global temperature for January–September 2023, which was 0.05°C higher than the corresponding period in 2016, the warmest year to date.

"Since June, both land and sea surfaces have been scorchingly hot. Larger than anything we have ever seen, the temperature anomalies are huge. The extent of the Antarctic winter sea ice was the smallest on record during the season. We may anticipate these record-breaking temperatures to last for months with cascading effects on our environment and society, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a statement on Thursday. "What is more concerning is that the rising El Nino event is still unfolding.

"Following a record summer, the temperatures for this time of year seen in September have broken records by an amazing amount. Due to this extraordinary month, 2023 now holds the dubious distinction of being the warmest year, with temperatures expected to be about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The need for ambitious climate action has never been more urgent, according to Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the C3S, in a statement released two months before COP28.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there's a a 95% likelihood that 2023 will be the warmest or second-warmest year on record, as reported by HT on September 22.

It was the second warmest January-August period ever recorded, with global land and ocean temperatures 1.06°C above the base period of 1991 to 2020.

The approaching winter is anticipated to remain El Nino-like. According to predictions made by NOAA scientists last month, there is a more than 95% possibility that El Nino will continue through January, February, and March of 2024 and a roughly 70% chance that it will still be strong by November, December, and January.

El Nino is evolving into a serious event. Typically, El Nino contributes to additional warming on top of the warming brought on by greenhouse gases. Therefore, we should expect exceptional temperatures everywhere during El Nino years, especially in the tropics. We should also check to determine if greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating the global warming signal. According to M. Rajeevan, a former secretary for the ministry of earth sciences, "Multidecadal oscillation of the oceans, particularly the Atlantic Ocean, may have an influence."

El Nino has a significant impact on India's southwest monsoon. There is a strong association between warmer summers and lesser monsoon rains in India during El Nino years, which are characterized by an exceptional warming of seas in the e

astern equatorial Pacific.