Can the power grid handle the wave of new electric vehicles?

 

The consensus is that utilities can generate enough electricity. The problem is getting it to people's homes and businesses.

Driven by the auto industry's aggressive rollout, the increasing driving range of vehicles, environmental regulations and government incentives, a wave of electric cars, SUVs and pickups is headed to America's highways.

Experts predict that EVs will make up a third or half of all light vehicles sold annually in the US by 2030, up from about 7% in 2022.

If those predictions are correct, it leaves one big question: Will the power grid be able to charge the batteries in those hundreds of millions of vehicles?

Some grid operators are already struggling to meet demand in some areas and at certain times – California power officials, for example, ordered electric cars to avoid charging in the evening during a heat wave last September. while helping avoid overloading the grid. Utility officials in other areas have warned in time of possible rolling blackouts to prevent system collapse.

First, the good news: Many experts believe the utility industry will be ready to generate enough electricity for the coming EV wave, thanks to planned capacity additions worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

But that's not the whole story. Much more severe disruptions are likely in localized parts of the grid that deliver power to individual homes and businesses. These neighborhood power-distribution systems may require costly upgrades. As electric trucks and delivery vans become commonplace, additional spending will be needed to reinforce the wires and transformers serving commercial sites.

Combined, all these investments will result in higher electricity tariffs, say many industry analysts.

"The more they invest in the grid, the more the cost goes back to consumers," says Brad Stansberry, US energy advisory leader at audit and consulting firm KPMG.

Something that could help all parts of the grid deal with higher demand when EVs are charged, such as curbing charging in the afternoon and evening, when electricity use tends to peak. There are several ways to accomplish this, such as changing the cost of electricity during the day and incentivizing car owners to charge overnight.

Here's a look at how mass EV adoption could affect three key components of the electric system—electricity generation, long-distance power transmission and local distribution—and what needs to be done to prepare.