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Predicting stock market movements from traders' facial expressions

 


• Researchers have launched a study on using facial recognition algorithms to track expressions of stock market traders

There is a saying that our eyes are the window of the soul. Perhaps over time they will serve a less romantic purpose, like windows to make money.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, one of the leading institutions for artificial-intelligence research, have launched a study using facial recognition algorithms to track traders' expressions. His goal: to find a connection between mood swings and market swings. If traders look bullish, it may be time to buy. Are the brows arched more than usual? Might be time to sell. The provisional US patent application was filed on September 13, 2022.

"Markets are driven by human emotion," says Mario Savvides, the project's lead scientist. Shoulders or scratching your head or leaning forward... Did everyone have a reaction within the five second time limit?"

The main phase of the study will take place over 12 months, beginning in the third quarter of 2023, and will involve approximately 70 traders from investment firms based mostly in the US. According to Savvides, they will all have cameras attached to their computers so that they can record their faces and gestures throughout the day. The cameras will be linked with software from Oosto, an Israeli company formerly known as AnyVision Interactive Technologies Ltd. It hoped to develop an alerting system for the trends traders face, or a volatility index that it could sell to investment firms.

Osto, which makes facial recognition scanners for airports and workplaces, declined to name the firms in the study but said those companies would have early access to any new tools that came out of the research. Each individual's footage will reside on their own computer or on their physical premises; Only data and numbers representing their expressions and gestures will be uploaded for the researchers.

According to Savvides, co-author of a 2017 study on facial "landmarks," a person's face is made up of 68 distinct points that frequently change position.

Their system will also track a trader's gaze to see if they are talking to a colleague or looking at their screen, and will note whether their peers are doing the same thing. Will do “We have a whole toolbox of search algorithms that we will test to see if they are relevant to the market signal,” Savvides said. "We're looking for a needle in a haystack."

Advertisers already use facial analysis to study how exciting an ad is, while retailers use it to see how bored customers are and to determine when hiring managers are interested. keeping, rather than crawling, if a job candidate is enthusiastic enough.

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