• The energy shift between India and China is likely to increase rather than reduce regional tensions in South Asia
It has often been discussed that China is trying to build large dam projects and hydroelectric plants on the Brahmaputra River, but China has always denied those claims. However, in a recent study by the European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), a Netherlands-based think-tank, said that China is pursuing a strategy to dominate the Bhraputra basin.
According to the think tank, regional tensions in South Asia are likely to increase rather than decrease due to the energy shift between India and China.
A shift in the strategies of energy transition and from fossil-based systems of power generation to renewables, China and India have focused on exploration and exploitation of the Brahmaputra river system.
The think tank has said that changing the way of energy production for China has become a major challenge for its heavy growth model and manufacturing industry.
The world is also under pressure to produce green energy and reduce the level of environmental pollution. Therefore, China is adopting a strategy to transition to renewable energy by reducing its excessive dependence on fossil fuels.
According to the think tank, China's same energy transition strategy (emphasis on renewable energy instead of fossil-based systems for power generation) has raised the possibility of conflict between China and India in the Brahmaputra river system as the two countries share the region. We do. ,
Recently, China announced that it will aim for carbon neutrality by 2060 and wants to be at the forefront of energy innovation. Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China would try to maximize its emissions before 2030.
Meanwhile, India has set a target of 40% non-fossil fuel production by 2030. Between 2010 and 2018, India doubled its renewable energy capacity. As per the EFSAS report, India has the fifth largest hydropower potential.
India's growing focus on hydropower over BRS as a major renewable is supported by two underlying trends. First, climate change and the resulting energy transition drive increased demand for renewable energy and greater focus on hydropower exploration. Second, increasing liberalization of the electricity market leads to increased importance of profit margins and less attention to local and regional concerns regarding large-scale projects that exceed central government transition targets.
India is also increasing its reliance on the Brahmaputra basin for hydroelectric potential. In such a situation, the tension between China and India is expected to increase. According to a Live Hindustan report, China's hydroelectric projects on the Yarlung Zangbo River (the Tibetan part of the Brahmaputra River) will turn the Brahmaputra River into a seasonal river in India. This may result in drought in the northeastern states.
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