Pandemic learning loss could cost students $70,000 in lifetime earnings

 

A study by a Stanford University economist estimated a total loss of $28 trillion over the rest of this century.

Learning losses could shave $70,000 off the lifetime earnings of school-age children during the pandemic, according to a new study by the Stanford Economist.

The grim forecast is based on an analysis of the sharp decline in scores of eighth grade students on national math tests taken between 2019 and 2022.

If learning losses are not compensated, K-12 students on average will grow into less educated, less-skilled and less productive adults and earn 5.6% less over the course of their lives than educated students just before the pandemic, Eric Said A. Hanushek, a Stanford University economist who specializes in education. He said that the total loss could be as much as $28 trillion for the rest of this century.

"The economic cost of loss of learning will amplify business cycle losses," Dr. Hanushek said.

Scores on the 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress, known as the nation's report card, fell across the board. Dr. Hanuschek's analysis is based on eighth-grade math test scores, which fell an average of eight points from 2019 before the pandemic. According to Dr. Hanushek, this is the largest decline ever recorded in the 32-year-old exam and translates to between 0.6 and 0.8 years of school missed.

Students in Oklahoma, Delaware and West Virginia fared the worst, with declines of nearly 12 points each. Students in Idaho, Alabama and Alaska showed some of the smallest declines—four points—and Utah did not report a statistically significant decline.

Dr. Hanushek said these declines could translate into a lifetime income loss of between 3% and 9%, depending on the state.

Dr. Hanuschek's analysis echoes a study released in October by researchers at Harvard and Dartmouth Universities, which estimated that if learning loss is not reversed, it could lead to a lifetime of learning loss for the average K-12 student. That would equate to a 1.6% decline in earnings.

That study also found that learning loss leads to lower high school graduation rates and college enrollment, as well as higher teen motherhood, arrests and incarceration.

Nationwide, the percentage of eighth grade students who failed to achieve a basic level of math skills on the test rose from 31% before the pandemic to 38%. That means those students typically struggle to solve simple algebra and geometry equations, such as solving for angles in a triangle, said Daniel McGrath, associate commissioner for assessment at the National Center for Education Statistics, who conducts the test.

"I think these eighth-graders are really, potentially in a tough spot," Dr. McGrath said.

During the distance learning period in the pandemic, the quality of math instruction suffered, often relying on memorization and copying rather than a deep understanding of concepts, said Kevin J. Diekema, head of eighth-grade math in Mattawan, Michigan. teacher, and President of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. "It's because they were used to just sitting in front of a computer screen," he said.

Students this year are taking longer to learn concepts, need more tutoring, and are struggling to engage in group activities, he said.

According to a UNICEF report published in December 2021, 1.6 billion of the world's approximately 2 billion school-going children missed a significant amount of class time during the pandemic. The damage done during the pandemic may be permanent.

Economists have studied the loss of learning after natural disasters and political disruptions around the world. In Argentina, where regional teachers' strikes were common between 1988 and 2014, elementary students in some regions of the country missed an average of 88 days of school during their primary-school education, according to a 2019 paper published by the Journal of I have been told. Co-authored by Alexander Willen, professor of labor economics and economics at the Norwegian School of Economics in Bergen, Norway.

Those students received less education, acquired fewer skills and, as adults, had higher rates of unemployment than those students in districts without school disruptions due to teachers' strikes. The effect was greater on young students and people from poor families.

The study found that when they reached the ages of 30 to 40, men earned 3.2% less and women 1.9% less than those who were not affected by the strike during their school years.